Well, I think one of the things is that your sketch seems different from the usual definition of truncated Gaussian.
So what the .fmod in sampling does in terms of pdf is to sum the pdf over all x+sign(x)
*i | i=0,1,2,… . If the shape of pdf in [cutoff
*(i+1)] were proportional to [0,cutoff], this would be exact. As it is falls of much more quickly than proportional (a 3 std event conditional on the magnitude being at least 2 std is much less likely than a 1 std event). This is why summation puts too much mass in the center. With a smaller cutoff, the pdf in [-cutoff,cutoff] becomes flatter (closer to uniform) and thus the error is more pronounced. And this would further increase if you cut of at less than 1 std, but at some point you might just use a uniform distribution anyway. Even at 1 you could use a cutoff of 2/3 (or so) and then multiply the sample by 3/2 to approximate the truncated normal better (i.e.
In the plain Box-Muller method, you are essentially using two transforms: first that for U_1 uniform on [0,1] R = -sqrt(2 ln(U_1)) has the distribution of the radii in a 2d standard normal, χ(2). Thus that X,Y = sin/cos(U_2) * R will be 2d standard normal. Then you are using that the marginals of the 2d standard normal are 1d standard normals.
If you now restrict R to R <= c, and take the pdf of X close to c, you have only very little of the total mass along the vertical (Y-coordinate) lies in the disc R<=c. This is why the “restricted BM” distribution has the density going to 0 as X approaches c.
But then I would be surprised if the initialisation heuristic broke down on with a simple approximation.